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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2025 Dec 10 1249 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	strumień 10cm	Ap
10 Dec 2025	181	012
11 Dec 2025	178	022
12 Dec 2025	176	012

Aktywne obszary słoneczne i rozbłyski

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with four M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 6377) peaking at 07:37 UTC on December 10, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). There are currently seven numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294). SIDC Sunspot Group 719 and SIDC Sunspot Group 714 (NOAA Active Region 4300) have decayed into plage regions. SIDC Sunspot Group 713 (NOAA Active Region 4298) is currently rotating across the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronalny wyrzut masy

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

Dziury koronalne

A northern, north-south elongated, negative polarity coronal hole (returning SIDC Coronal Hole 142) is crossing the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from December 13.

Wiatr słoneczny

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE) reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. A small increase was observed in the solar wind parameters around 03:00 UTC on December 10, possibly due to an ongoing, weak influence of an ICME arrival. Speed values increased from 370 km/s to 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values increased from 7 nT to 13 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum of -8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) angle was in the negative sector until around 05:00 UTC on December 10, when it shifted to the positive sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions may be expected over the next 24 hours, due to the small chance of arrival of a glancing blow associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 607, observed around 22:36 UTC on December 08).

Geomagnetyzm

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 3, K BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 4), with a small chance of minor storm conditions, are expected over the next 24 hours due to the small chance of arrival of a glancing blow associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 607, observed around 22:36 UTC on December 08).

Poziomy przepływu protonów

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity from SIDC Sunspot Groups 709, 712 (NOAA Active Regions 4294, 4296).

Strumienie elektronów na orbicie geostacjonarnej

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was close to the 1000 pfu threshold but remained mostly below it in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 133, na podstawie 10 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 09 Dec 2025

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	182
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	183
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Szacunkowa Ap	003
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	154 - Na podstawie stacji 13

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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