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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2026 Feb 03 1231 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Quiet

	strumień 10cm	Ap
03 Feb 2026	174	007
04 Feb 2026	176	007
05 Feb 2026	178	026

Aktywne obszary słoneczne i rozbłyski

A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Numerous M-class flares were detected in the last 24 hours, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366) currently located at N13E20. This sunspot group has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M7.2 flare (SIDC Flare 6842) peaking on February 03 at 07:01 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366). Solar flaring activity is expected to be high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and X-class flares possible.

Koronalny wyrzut masy

No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the last 24 hours. After compiling the latest observations and simulation results, the arrival time to the Earth of the CME from 2 February has been recalculated to 5 February around 6:00 UT.

Wiatr słoneczny

The Earth is within a slow solar wind stream. The solar wind speed is around 300 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetyzm

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Poziomy przepływu protonów

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366) will cross the central meridian after that, becoming better magnetically connected with the Earth and increasing the risk of a proton storm.

Strumienie elektronów na orbicie geostacjonarnej

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 has been above the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to slowly return to low levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to go to normal levels over the next hours.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 157, na podstawie 07 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 02 Feb 2026

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	185
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	006
Szacunkowa Ap	006
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	132 - Na podstawie stacji 12

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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