Просмотр архива за вторник, 26 сентября 2000
Отчет о солнечной активности
Любая солнечная вспышка, упомянутая в этом расчете, имеет масштабирующий коэффициент, применяемый Центром прогнозирования космической погоды (SWPC). Из-за него солнечные вспышки здесь на 42% слабее, чем в научных данных. Из наших архивов этот коэффициент был удален, чтобы показать реальные величины вспышек.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 2000 Sep 26 2200 UTC
Подготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.comСовместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности
Количество SD 270 на уровне 2200Z 26 SEP 2000
IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 25 - 2100Z до 26 - 2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A C-8 X-RAY BURST AT 26/2000Z. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED IN ANY NUMBERED REGIONS BUT SURGING NOTED ON THE SE LIMB
BECAME PARTICULARLY BRIGHT AND ENHANCED DURING THIS X-RAY EVENT.
LARGE REGION 9169 (N12W34) CONTINUES TO DECAY AND APPEARS TO NO
LONGER CONTAIN A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. ONLY LOW C-CLASS
FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM THIS REGION. REGION 9173 (S13E51)
UNDERWENT SOME GROWTH AND PRODUCED A C4/SF FLARE AT 26/1231Z. NEW
REGIONS 9174 (S30W60) AND 9175 (N21E67) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 9169, THOUGH DECAYING, IS STILL CAPABLE OF AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK
MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THIS DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
SOLAR WIND SPEED WAS AVERAGING NEAR 600 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF
MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE ON DAYS ONE AND TWO. A CME ASSOCIATED WITH
THE M-1 FLARE ON 25/0215Z MAY ENHANCE THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
THROUGH DAY TWO. MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON DAY THREE.
III. Вероятность события от 27 - SEP до 29 - SEP
| M-класс | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-класс | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Протон | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW
|
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
Наблюдаемый 26 SEP 224
Прогнозируемый 27 SEP-29 SEP 210/200/190
среднее значение за последние 3 месяца 26 SEP 181
V. Геомагнитные индексы
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 SEP 013/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 SEP 020/021
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 SEP-29 SEP 020/020-012/010-012/010
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 27 - SEP до 29 - SEP
| A. Средние широты |
| Активно | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Слабый шторм | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Большой шторм | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Высокие широты |
| Активно | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Слабый шторм | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Большой шторм | 10% | 10% | 05% |
VII. COMMENTS
EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED
CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC
PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE
CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR
SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT
SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML
Все время в UTC
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