Просмотр архива за суббота, 30 июля 2005
Отчет о солнечной активности
Любая солнечная вспышка, упомянутая в этом расчете, имеет масштабирующий коэффициент, применяемый Центром прогнозирования космической погоды (SWPC). Из-за него солнечные вспышки здесь на 42% слабее, чем в научных данных. Из наших архивов этот коэффициент был удален, чтобы показать реальные величины вспышек.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 2005 Jul 30 2204 UTCПодготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com
Совместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности
Количество SD 211 на уровне 2200Z 30 Jul 2005IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 29 - 2100Z до 30 - 2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 792 (N12E52) produced
an X1/2b event today with maximum at 0635 UTC. The event had a long
decay time and was associated with Type II and Type IV radio sweeps.
The event was also associated with a fast, full halo CME. The CME
had an estimated plane-of-sky speed in the range of 1700-1800 km/s
in the LASCO C3 field of view, and was somewhat asymmetric towards
the east. Region 792 consists of a compact cluster of spots and
appears to have at least two delta configurations within its complex
magnetic configuration. In addition to the X-flare, Region 792 also
produced a C9/1n at 0519 UTC and a C8/Sf at 1707 UTC. Another CME
has been observed following the C8 event, but so far appears to be a
limb event rather than a partial or full halo event.
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate for the next three days (31 July - 02 August), but
there is a fair chance for additional, isolated major flare activity
from Region 792. In addition, there is an increasing likelihood that
major flare activity from Region 792 will lead to enhanced proton
flux as the group rotates closer to disk center.
IIA. Обзор геофизической активности от 29 - 2100Z до 30 - 2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind data show a gradual decline in velocity,
indicating the transition from a high speed stream to normal solar
wind conditions; day end velocities were at 470-480 km/s. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 27/2300 UTC continues
in progress. The maximum flux observed so far is 41 PFU at 29/1715
UTC. There was no detectable upturn in proton flux from today's
major flare/CME event, although it may be contributing to the
prolonging of the currently enhanced flux levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the past 24 hours.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for 31 July. A glancing blow from
today's full halo CME is expected early on 01 August and is expected
to increase activity to predominantly active levels, with a chance
for some minor storm periods. Conditions should decline to unsettled
to slightly active by 02 August.
III. Вероятность события от 31 - Jul до 02 - Aug
| M-класс | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-класс | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Протон | 80% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
Наблюдаемый 30 Jul 105 Прогнозируемый 31 Jul-02 Aug 110/115/115 среднее значение за последние 3 месяца 30 Jul 096
V. Геомагнитные индексы
Наблюдаемый Afr/Ap 29 Jul 014/019 По оценкам Afr/Ap 30 Jul 015/020 Прогнозируемый Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 010/015-020/025-015/015
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 31 - Jul до 02 - Aug
| A. Средние широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 25% | 40% | 35% |
| Слабый шторм | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Большой шторм | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Высокие широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Слабый шторм | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Большой шторм | 05% | 20% | 10% |
Все время в UTC
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