Просмотр архива за пятница, 27 мая 2011
Отчет о солнечной активности
Любая солнечная вспышка, упомянутая в этом расчете, имеет масштабирующий коэффициент, применяемый Центром прогнозирования космической погоды (SWPC). Из-за него солнечные вспышки здесь на 42% слабее, чем в научных данных. Из наших архивов этот коэффициент был удален, чтобы показать реальные величины вспышек.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 2011 May 28 0225 UTC
Подготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.comСовместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности
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Количество SD 147 на уровне 2200Z 27 May 2011
IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 26 - 2100Z до 27 - 2100Z
Solar activity was low. New Region 1226 (S18E74)
produced a B-class event and four C-class events since being
numbered today. The largest was a C5 observed at 27/1643Z. This
region began with a B1 event at 26/1654Z as it approached the
southeast limb yesterday. It is currently an H-type group, however,
the region is still rotating onto the disk and more white light area
are evident in the SDO/HMI imagery just visible on the limb. Region
1223 (S16W00) produced the only other event during the period, a B4
at 27/0953Z. This region is a Dso group with a beta magnetic
classification and grew slightly in sunspot count. Two more regions
were numbered today as Regions 1224 (N21W15) and 1225 (N18E55).
Region 1224 is a Dso group with a beta magnetic classification and
1225 is another H-type group.
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for C-class events, and a slight chance for an M-class
event, as regions on the disk continue to evolve.
IIA. Обзор геофизической активности от 26 - 2100Z до 27 - 2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations from the
ACE spacecraft suggest the earth is under the continued influence of
the co-rotating interaction region in advance of the recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Solar winds have slowly increased
from around 390 to 500 km/s. The IMF Bt averaged around 8 nT with
the Bz mostly southward (-8 nT) through the period.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled with occasional active
periods, including isolated minor storm conditions at high-latitudes
for day one (28 May). This is expected due to effects from the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). In addition
there are possible effects from the disappearing filament observed
on 25 May. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active
levels, are expected for days two and three (29-30 May) with
continued CH HSS effects.
III. Вероятность события от 28 - May до 30 - May
| M-класс | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-класс | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Протон | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green
|
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
Наблюдаемый 27 May 090
Прогнозируемый 28 May-30 May 090/095/095
среднее значение за последние 3 месяца 27 May 108
V. Геомагнитные индексы
Наблюдаемый Afr/Ap 26 May 004/007
По оценкам Afr/Ap 27 May 010/012
Прогнозируемый Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 015/018-010/012-008/008
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 28 - May до 30 - May
| A. Средние широты |
| Активно | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Слабый шторм | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Большой шторм | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Высокие широты |
| Активно | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Слабый шторм | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Большой шторм | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Все время в UTC
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