Просмотр архива за пятница, 9 марта 2012
Отчет о солнечной активности
Любая солнечная вспышка, упомянутая в этом расчете, имеет масштабирующий коэффициент, применяемый Центром прогнозирования космической погоды (SWPC). Из-за него солнечные вспышки здесь на 42% слабее, чем в научных данных. Из наших архивов этот коэффициент был удален, чтобы показать реальные величины вспышек.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 2012 Mar 09 2210 UTCПодготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com
Совместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности
**********CORRECTED COPY********** Количество SD 069 на уровне 2200Z 09 Mar 2012IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 08 - 2100Z до 09 - 2100Z Solar activity reached high levels today. Region 1429
(N18W13) produced an M6 flare at 09/0353Z. Associated with this
event was Type II (1285 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a
full halo CME first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0426Z. The
CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 850 km/s in STEREO B COR2
imagery. Separation and slight decay within the intermediate area
was observed in Region 1429, however it still remained a large Ekc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. A new
spot group rotated onto the NE limb and was numbered Region 1432
(N18E69). This new region is too close to the limb to accurately
determine the spot and magnetic classification, however it produced
a C9 flare at 09/2025Z.
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels with a chance for X-class activity from
Region 1429 for the next three days (10 - 12 March).
IIA. Обзор геофизической активности от 08 - 2100Z до 09 - 2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to severe storm conditions due to
continued activity from the sheath region associated with the 07
March CME. At approximately 09/0049Z, the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field started to rotate towards a more
magnetically connected polarity. Bz continued to be negative for
several hours reaching values near -17 nT with an approximate solar
wind speed over 600 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with
major to severe storm periods during the periods 09/0300 - 1500Z.
Solar wind remained elevated around 600 km/s by the end of the
period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/0510Z
is ongoing. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at
07/0405 is ongoing.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be under the influence of the current CME through early
on day 1. Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm
periods, are possible is expected as the CME continues to wane.
Early to mid-day on day 2 (11 March), the CME associated with
todays M-6 flare is expected to become geoeffective. Active to
severe storm periods are expected with this event. Unsettled to
active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, are possible
on day 3 (12 March) as conditions are expected to slowly dissipate.
III. Вероятность события от 10 - Mar до 12 - Mar
| M-класс | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-класс | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Протон | 99% | 99% | 60% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
Наблюдаемый 09 Mar 146 Прогнозируемый 10 Mar-12 Mar 150/150/150 среднее значение за последние 3 месяца 09 Mar 125
V. Геомагнитные индексы
Наблюдаемый Afr/Ap 08 Mar 021/028 По оценкам Afr/Ap 09 Mar 046/073 Прогнозируемый Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 015/022-033/070-017/030
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 10 - Mar до 12 - Mar
| A. Средние широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Слабый шторм | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Большой шторм | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| B. Высокие широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 35% | 20% | 40% |
| Слабый шторм | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Большой шторм | 15% | 50% | 25% |
Все время в UTC
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