Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 17 февраля 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Feb 17 1157 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Feb 2013	108	006
18 Feb 2013	112	007
19 Feb 2013	116	011

Bulletin

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours, with only a C1.0 flare on Feb. 17 (0036 UT peak time) from a new region, NOAA AR 1675, which emerged on Feb. 16. This is the main source for additional C flares in the next 48 hours, together, albeit with a lower probability, with NOAA AR 1671 and 1673. Geomagnetic activity was unsettled to active at planetary levels and reached even minor storm conditions at local level (K=5 at Dourbes from 15 to 18UT). This corresponds to a small shock observed by the ACE spacecraft around 1200 UT, linked to a moderate fast solar wind stream, associated with a coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Bz excursions down to -10 nT were observed on that day around 1400UT. We expect quiet conditions to prevail for the next 48 hours, and then reach unsettled to possibly active conditions for isolated periods, by the end of Feb. 19, or the the first half of Feb. 20, due to the arrival of the CME of Feb. 15.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 061, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Feb 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	103
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	021 - Based on 07 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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