Просмотр архива за четверг, 16 мая 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 May 16 1317 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
16 May 2013	147	010
17 May 2013	149	025
18 May 2013	151	007

Bulletin

No major flares in past 24h, the largest one was a C1.6 from NOAA AR 1748 peaking at 12:37 UT on May 15. This AR is still expected to produce major flares. NOAA AR 1745 has potential for M-class flares. The proton flux remains over the threshold of 1 protons/cm2-s-sr for the past 24h. This increase is related to the CME and X1.2 solar flare from May 15. Geomagnetic conditions have ranged from unsettled to active. ACE data shows an ICME arriving at 08:00 UT on May 15, most likely corresponding to the CME of May 12. A glancing blow of the CME from May 15 can be expected in the first half of May 17, increasing geomagnetic conditions up to storm levels (estimated max K = 6).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 139, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 15 May 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	111 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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