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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Jun 21 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Jun 2013	132	024
22 Jun 2013	135	012
23 Jun 2013	135	007

Bulletin

Active conditions were observed during the last 24 hours, with an M2.9 flare occurring in NOAA AR 1777, to the east of the trailing sunspot, on June 21, 0314 UT (peak time). A CME was associated with this event, but due to the position of the source region, we do not expect any geomagnetic consequences. This region was the source of a C8.4 flare on June 19, and very likely the source of a wide CME observed on June 18, when it was well behind the east limb. This region is likely to produce extra flares in the coming days, at least of C-class and possibly again an isolated M flare. More information on the magnetic type will be available as it further rotates on the disk. There is a total of 7 active regions on the disk, and in addition to AR 1777, C flares are likely from NOAA AR 1776, AR 1775, and to a lesser extent AR 1772. We expect therefore eruptive conditions for the next 48 hours. Geomagnetic activity reached unsettled to active conditions late on June 20, and early on June 21, in response to the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream linked to a coronal hole in geoffective position. We expect this situation to persist over the next 24 hours, and then come back to quiet to unsettled conditions on June 22.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 098, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Jun 2013

Wolf number Catania	130
10cm solar flux	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	091 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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