Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 18 августа 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Aug 18 1225 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Aug 2013	123	007
19 Aug 2013	120	007
20 Aug 2013	120	012

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1818 produced a complex eruptive event on August 17, resulting in two M flares within one hour: a M3.3 peaking at 1824 UT and a M1.4 peaking at 1933 UT. This complex event was associated with a fast CME (~1000 km/s as seen from COR2 A). The bulk of the CME appears to go essentially westwards, with respect to the Earth, but we might cross the eastern flank of this CME on the second half of August 20. The 10 MeV proton flux rose slightly but didn't reach the event threshold. Flaring activity is expected to remain at eruptive levels for the next 48 hours, with C class flares likely from NOAA ARs 1818 and 1824, and a slight risk of an isolated M class flare from AR 1818. We expect essentially quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 48 hours. There is a small chance of periods of enhanced activity (unsettled to active) on the second half of August 20, due to the CME of August 17.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 074, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Aug 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	071 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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