Просмотр архива за четверг, 19 сентября 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Sep 19 1305 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Sep 2013	103	016
20 Sep 2013	109	010
21 Sep 2013	110	008

Bulletin

Solar activity remains low. The only C-class flare reported during last 24 hours is C1.8 flare which peaked at 08:17 UT on September 19. From the currently available data it seems that flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 80 (NOAA AR 1836), situated just behind the east solar limb. The eruption from the Catania sunspot group 76 (NOAA AR 1845) at about 03:44 UT on September 19, has no reported flare. From the currently available data it seems that the CME is associated with coronal dimming, EIT wave, and it is possibly Earth-oriented. We expect flaring activity on the C-level. The Earth is currently inside a fast solar wind flow with the speed of about 600 km/s. The fast flow associated with the small equatorial coronal hole arrived in the afternoon of September 18. The low-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere has reached the central meridian today. We expect arrival of the associated fast flow in the morning of September 22. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is currently stable having value of about 5 nT. The occasional intervals of negative Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field, due to the arrival of a fast flow, resulted in unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions (up to K=4, as reported by local station Dourbe). The geomagnetic conditions are at the moment quiet to unsettled and expected to remain so in the following 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 044, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Sep 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	104
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	044 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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