Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 29 сентября 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Sep 29 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Sep 2013	105	005
30 Sep 2013	106	011
01 Oct 2013	103	008

Bulletin

Solar activity has slightly increased: both NOAA AR 1853/Catania 90 and NOAA AR 1850/Catania 83 produced a C1.6 flare. NOAA AR 1853/Catania 90 is ready to rotate behind the west limb, NOAA AR 1850/Catania 83 is located in the longitudinal segment between 45° and 60°. NOAA AR 1853/Catania 90 has the highest probability producing C-flares. NOAA AR 1854 (near the east limb) is new on the solar disk and is another candidate to produce C-flares, although with a lower probability. We predicted eruptive conditions, i.e. more than 50% probability for C-flares. The filament, now situated between 15° and 30° longitude is still stable. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet. Tomorrow, unsettled conditions are possible when the equatorial coronal hole becomes geoeffective.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 031, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Sep 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	106
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	001
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	037 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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