Просмотр архива за пятница, 11 октября 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Oct 11 1221 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Oct 2013	128	007
12 Oct 2013	132	007
13 Oct 2013	136	007

Bulletin

Solar activity is expected to stay at active levels for the next 48 hours, with M flares likely from NOAA AR 1861 and 1865. AR 1861 continues to grow in complexity and size and is likely to produce M class events (two C5 flares occurred in this region on Oct. 11). AR 1865 doesn't evolve much, but retains a capability of producing C and M class flares. A region, currently behind the East limb (N21) produced a M1.5 flare on Oct. 11, 0723 UT (peak time). It was accompanied by a wide CME, a coronal EUV wave and a metric type II burst. More M class event might occur in this region, but no proper assessment can be done until magnetic observations are available. It is unlikely, due to the position of the source region that the CME will have an effect on the geomagnetic activity. Finally, there is an indication of a filament eruption, which occurred on Oct. 11, arount 02-03 UT, north of AR 1867. Due a data gap in LASCO data, we do not know if a CME is associated with this event. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for next 48 hours. Current ACE observations show very quiet interplanetary conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 094, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	121
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	087 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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