Просмотр архива за пятница, 6 декабря 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Dec 06 1253 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Dec 2013	150	007
07 Dec 2013	152	018
08 Dec 2013	153	011

Bulletin

The GOES X-ray background radiation is at the C-level. Several C-class flares were observed during the past 24h, mainly in NOAA AR 1909 and in the returning regions on the east limb. We expect more C-flares, especially from these east limb regions, with a small chance for an M-class flare. A large scale filament eruption was observed on December 04, starting from 11:00 UT. This resulted in a slow CME, mainly oriented towards the north. Another filament erupted in AR 1909 around 21 UT on December 5th. While there is a gap in LASCO data, COR2-A images clearly show the associated slow CME. The activity on the east limb also resulted in several CMEs towards the SE (as seen from LASCO). We expect unsettled to active conditions (up to K=4) on December 7 due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream. This coronal hole, which seems to have increased in size in the last 24h, passed the central meridian on December 4. Afterwards, geomagnetic conditions should return to quiet conditions until December 9th when Earth may feel the influence from the ICME associated with the filament eruption in AR 1909. A glancing blow from the east limb CMEs is also possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	148
10cm solar flux	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	078 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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