Просмотр архива за понедельник, 16 декабря 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Dec 16 1211 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Dec 2013	152	006
17 Dec 2013	150	008
18 Dec 2013	145	008

Bulletin

The background X-ray radiation is situated in the top B-level (B7). The strongest solar flare was a C3.6 flare originating from Catania sunspot region 80 (NOAA AR 1917). The probability for C-flares is around 70%, M-flares around 20%, the chances for an X-flare are low. The >10MeV proton flux measured by GOES had a small bump, but remained below the event threshold (10 pfu) and is now back at background level. The origin of this enhancement currently is unclear. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in coronagraphic data. We are currently inside a slow solar wind stream with a solar wind speed of 400 km/s, as observed by ACE. The interplanetary magnetic field currently is weak with a magnitude of about 5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K<3) to unsettled (K=3) and are expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 080, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	091 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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