Просмотр архива за четверг, 19 декабря 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Dec 19 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Dec 2013	155	005
20 Dec 2013	155	006
21 Dec 2013	155	005

Bulletin

The strongest flares during the past 24 hours were two C1.8 and a C1.3 events taking place in Catania sunspot region 90 (NOAA AR 1930), located at 30 degrees east of the central meridian. No Earth-directed CME was observed. The probability for C-flares remains high, around 80%, with a small chance of M-flares, around 30%, from Catania sunspot regions 80, 87 and 90 (NOAA ARs 1917, 1928 and 1930). C flares are possible from Catania sunspot 91 (NOAA AR 1931). The chances for an X-flare are very low. We are currently in a slow solar wind stream with a solar wind speed of 350 km/s and a magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field of 5 nT (observed by ACE). Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to be quiet to unsettled (K<4) during the next 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 099, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	149
10cm solar flux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	093 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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