Просмотр архива за вторник, 31 декабря 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2013 Dec 31 1140 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Dec 2013	145	007
01 Jan 2014	145	020
02 Jan 2014	142	016

Bulletin

The flaring activity in the southern solar hemisphere continues at C-class level. The largest flare in the past day was a C5.6 flare originating in NOAA AR 11936 with peak time at 02:40 UT today. Afterwards, also NOAA AR 11938 produced a C2.0 flare, peaking at 05:32 UT. Both regions are expected to produce more C-flares in the coming hours. AR 11936, which has evolved to a beta-gamma-delta region, also has the potential to produce an M-class flare. We maintain the warning condition for proton events. STEREO-A/COR2 images show a CME at 07:08 UT, after a data gap. More data is needed for further analysis, but this event may originate near NOAA AR 11934, which is turning over the west limb. A possible glancing blow from this CME can occur late on January 3. STEREO-B/COR2 observed a faint CME on December 29 around 20:25 UT, possibly linked to the M-flare on that day. A glancing blow from this CME is possible on January 2. We expect minor geomagnetic storm conditions late on January 1 and early on January 2 (K_Dourbes up to 5) due to the arrival of a fast coronal hole wind stream and possible effects from the CME activity on December 29.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 091, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	068 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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