Просмотр архива за понедельник, 17 февраля 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Feb 17 1323 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Feb 2014	154	011
18 Feb 2014	153	007
19 Feb 2014	152	007

Bulletin

Several C-class flares in past 24h. The strongest one was a C6.6 flare peaking at 03:04 UT. This region, and NOAA AR 1974, will likely produce more C-class and probably M-class flares. A new region rotating over the east limb is producing C-class flares also. A halo CME was first seen at 13:25 UT on February 16. This CME was a backsided event and not expected to arrive to the Earth. A C3.4 flare from NOAA AR 1977 that peaked at 14:00 UT on February 16 was related to a filament eruption, but no corresponding CME could be detected. Geomagnetic conditions have ranged from quiet to unsettled in past 24h. The possible arrival of a CME from February 13 and the fast solar wind from a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere may rise conditions to active levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 078, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	030
Estimated Ap	030
Estimated international sunspot number	075 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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