Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 23 февраля 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Feb 23 1335 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Feb 2014	163	021
24 Feb 2014	169	019
25 Feb 2014	174	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been dominated by NOAA AR 1982 with several C-class flares and by recurrent AR NOAA 1967 slightly behind the east limb. This AR produced a long duration M1.0 flare with peak at 06:10 UT, related to a non-Earth directed CME. A second partial halo came from this AR at 16:00 UT on February 22, also not expected to affect the Earth. As this region rotates into view in next 24 - 48 h solar activity is expected to increase. A third partial halo CME was seen at 12:12 UT on February 22 by LASCO-C2, this one corresponded to a backside filament eruption in the south, not Earth directed. A weak transient arrived to ACE around 02:30 UT related most likely to the CMEs of February 20. Bz has been positive until now (with IMF magnitude close to 12 nT), with solar wind speeds close to 500 km/s, which led to only unsettled conditions so far. The situation may change in the next 24h if Bz turns negative. A small coronal hole could have also an effect on the geomagnetic conditions by February 24.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 110, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	103 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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