Просмотр архива за понедельник, 31 марта 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Mar 31 1303 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Mar 2014	151	007
01 Apr 2014	150	013
02 Apr 2014	150	013

Bulletin

The most prominent flaring activity of the past 24 hours was an M1.4 flare in NOAA AR 2014 with peak time at 8:07 UT and a C7.6 flare in NOAA AR 2017 with peak at 21:15 UT on March 30. NOAA AR 2026 produced a further number of C flares. C flaring activity is expected to continue over the next 48 hours, with a slight chance for an M flare. Yesterdays M2.1 flare in NOAA AR 2017 which peaked at 11:55 UT on March 30 was associated with a partial halo CME, first visible in the LASCO C2 field of view at 12:24 UT. The CME had an angular width of about 170 degrees and a speed of around 500 km/s (as determined by the CACTUS software). Although the bulk of the CME mass was expelled in NorthWest direction of the Sun-Earth line, an equatorial component was present. A glancing blow from this partial halo CME is possible and can be expected early on April 3. Both the C7.6 flare in AR 2014 and the M1.4 flare in AR 2014 had eruptions associated with them, but preliminary analysis with STEREO COR2 ahead seems to indicate that they had a relatively small angular width and are therefore not expected to become geoeffective. The solar wind speed is steady at 400 km/s with the magnetic field at around 4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet to moderate, with Kp not above 2, while the local K Dourbes reaching 3.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 083, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Mar 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	064 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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