Просмотр архива за среда, 11 июня 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Jun 11 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Jun 2014	172	010
12 Jun 2014	170	006
13 Jun 2014	170	014

Bulletin

The solar activity is high. Majority of the flaring activity originated from the NOAA AR 2087 currently situated close to the east solar limb. The strongest flare in the last 24 hours was the X1.0 flare peaking at 09:06 UT on June 11. About one hour before the X-class flare, the same Catania sunspot group 81 (NOAA AR 2087), produced the M3.0 flare (peaked at 08:09 UT). The SDO/AIA data indicate that both flares were associated with the CME. More details will be reported once coronagraph data become available. The X2.2 flare (peaking at 11:44 UT) on June 10, originated from the Catania sunspot group 81 (NOAA AR 2087) was associated with narrow CME (angular width of about 70 degrees) which will not arrive at the Earth.The subsequent long duration X1.5 flare (peaking at 12:52 UT) from the same Catania sunspot group 81 (NOAA AR 2087) was associated with coronal dimmings, an EIT wave and a full halo CME. The CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 13:25 UT and had a projected plane of the sky speed of about 1050 km/s. The majority of the CME mass was ejected eastward of the Sun-Earth line. The glancing blow associated with this CME can be expected at the Earth in the morning of June 13. We expect C-class, M-class and X-class flares in the coming hours, in particular from the Catania sunspot groups 81, 69 and 76 (NOAA AR 2087, 2080 and 2085, respectively). Due to the position of the Catania sunspot groups 69 and 76 (NOAA AR 2080 and 2085, respectively) on the western solar hemisphere, the major eruption from one of these sunspot groups may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside the fast solar wind with speed of about 600 km/s. The solar wind increase which started early this morning is probably associated with the small equatorial coronal hole that reached the central meridian late on June 08. Since morning of June 10 the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating, and its current magnitude is 5 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are at the moment quiet. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours. The glancing blow associated with the halo CME from June 10 is expected to arrive at the Earth in the morning of June 13, and it might result in the active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 118, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Jun 2014

Wolf number Catania	199
10cm solar flux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	112 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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