Просмотр архива за четверг, 4 сентября 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Sep 04 1249 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Sep 2014	141	011
05 Sep 2014	145	007
06 Sep 2014	148	006

Bulletin

Since yesterday's bulletin, solar activity was on the C-level, with the strongest flare being the C5.2 flare peaking yesterday at 21:24 UT in the Catania sunspot group 44 (NOAA AR 1255) close to the east-south-east limb. The same active region yesterday produced the M2.5 flare that was accompanied only by a weak and narrow CME. The solar background X-ray flux is currently around the C1 level. We expect flaring activity up the M-level, in particular from the Catania sunspot group 44. The former NOAA AR 2139 (that was responsible for the major eruption on the far side of the Sun on September 1) is now appearing from behind the east limb. The solar proton flux, although increased, has stabilized below the SEP event threshold. We maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 390 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 084, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Sep 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	070 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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