Просмотр архива за понедельник, 8 сентября 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Sep 08 1215 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Sep 2014	155	007
09 Sep 2014	157	007
10 Sep 2014	159	007

Bulletin

There are currently 8 sunspot groups visible, with both NOAA 2157 and 2158 dominating the outlook of the solar disk. Five C-class flares were recorded, with the strongest a C7.8 flare peaking at 19:43UT. All C-class flares originated from active region NOAA 2157. No earth-directed CMEs were observed. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is still enhanced, and currently at a steady 4 pfu. Both NOAA 2157 and 2158 have gained some sunspot area overnight, with magnetic delta structures prominently present. There's still a reasonable chance on an M-class flare. The warning condition for a proton event remains in effect. On 8 September around 04:00UT, ACE observed a transient in the solar wind with wind speeds gradually increasing from a steady 340 km/s up to 430 km/s. The IMF continued pointing towards the Sun, with Bz evolving from an initial -3 nT towards its current +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next three days, possibly modulated by the high speed stream from a coronal hole that passed the central meridian on 5 September. On 10 September, there's a chance on unsettled conditions with an isolated active period in response to the possible glancing blow from the 6 September CME.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 111, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Sep 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	110 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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