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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Sep 23 1239 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Sep 2014	134	012
24 Sep 2014	138	013
25 Sep 2014	142	012

Bulletin

Solar activity has been very low with only a single notable C flare peaking at 19:51 UT at C1.6 level and originating from NOAA AR 2172. Background X-ray radiation has steadily increased to the C level. All 6 active regions on disc appear stable with NOAA AR 2172 the most significant potential flaring source. C flares should be expected with a chance for an M-flare especially from this region. The slightly enhanced proton levels (below the event threshold) observed yesterday have meanwhile settled to almost nominal values. An at least partial halo CME was recorded in SOHO/LASCO C2 data starting at around 7:36 UT. Analysis is ongoing regarding its source and potential impact, but first analysis seems to point to a source on the far side similar to the second CME observed yesterday. Solar wind speed has been stable, mainly within the 400-460 km/s range. Total magnetic field has slightly increased from between 5-6 nT to between 6-7 nT with Bz variable but now predominantly negative up to -6nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 2-3). Later today we may see the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream likely to last over the coming days. Associated enhanced geomagnetic activity (periods of active conditions) is possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 089, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Sep 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	068 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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