Просмотр архива за среда, 22 октября 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Oct 22 1246 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Oct 2014	204	011
23 Oct 2014	208	011
24 Oct 2014	210	011

Bulletin

Three M-class flares were detected in the past 24 hours, all of them produced by the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). The strongest flare was the M8.7 flare peaking at 01:59 UT. Based on the still incomplete SOHO/LASCO data and the absence of conspicuous eruptive signatures in the SDO/AIA data, we conclude that there was no CME associated with this flare. We expect flaring activity mostly on the M-level in this group, with a good chance for an X-class flare. As the Catania sunspot group 88 approaches the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 460 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 095, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	151
10cm solar flux	199
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	082 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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