Просмотр архива за четверг, 13 ноября 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Nov 13 1317 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Nov 2014	151	011
14 Nov 2014	160	007
15 Nov 2014	165	014

Bulletin

The strongest flare reported in last 24 hours was a C8.4 flare on November 13 (peaking at 06:07 UT) probably originated from the NOAA AR 2209 which is just rotating to the visible side of the Sun. Due to the gap in the coronagraph data, it is not clear if this flare was associated with the CME. However, since the source region of the possible eruption would be behind the solar limb the CME would not be Earth-directed. The NOAA AR 2205 is currently situated in the western solar hemisphere. Although the region shows signs of decay (decrease in the area and number of sunspots), it still has beta-gamma configuration of its photospehric magnetic field. Therefore, we expect flaring activity of the C-class and M-class level from this active region, from the constantly growing NOAA AR 2208 and the NOAA AR 2209 currently at the east solar limb. Due to the position of the NOAA AR 2205, a major eruption from this active region may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is fluctuating between 450 and 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 6 nT. Rather extended low latitude coronal hole (between N12 and N60) reached the central meridian this morning. The arrival of the fast flow associated with this coronal hole is expected late on November 15 or early on November 16, and it could induce unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. Currently, the geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled and expected to remain so in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 085, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	066 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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