Просмотр архива за пятница, 5 декабря 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Dec 05 1229 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Dec 2014	153	012
06 Dec 2014	149	019
07 Dec 2014	145	008

Bulletin

During last 24 hours nine C-class flares and two M-class flares were reported. Majority of the solar activity, including M-class flares, originated from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222) which still maintains beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. The strongest reported flare was a confined M6.1 flare (no associated CME observed) which peaked on 18:25 UT, on December 4. In the coming hours we expect C-class flares. Isolated M-class flares are also possible, in particular from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222) which is presently situated on the west solar hemisphere (about S19 W43). Eruptions and flaring activity from this active region could be accompanied with the particle event, due to the position of the active region, therefore we issue warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed currently amounts about 490 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is still slightly elevated and it is presently 9nT. The short intervals of negative value of Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field resulted in unsettled geomagnetic condition (the local station at Dourbes and Izmiran reported values of K=3, and NOAA reported Kp=4). The fast solar wind originating from the large polar coronal hole with the extent to the low latitudes (up to about S40) might be expected at the Earth in the morning of December 6. Therefore we expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 040, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	076 - Based on 07 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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