Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 7 декабря 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Dec 07 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Dec 2014	127	015
08 Dec 2014	122	009
09 Dec 2014	120	006

Bulletin

The solar activity is rather low, and the strongest flare during last 24 hours was a C3.7 flare (peaked at 13:52 UT on December 6) which originated from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222). We expect C-class flares in the coming hours. An issolated M-class flare is possible from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222) which is currently situated close to the west solar limb (S20W70). The strong flaring activity originating from this active region might be accompanied with the proton event. Therefore, we maintain the warning conditions for a proton event. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. The Earth is currently inside of a fast solar wind with the speed of about 690 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 7nT. The fast solar wind originating from the large polar coronal hole with the extent to the low latitudes (up to about S40) arrived at the Earth yesterday, as expected. The concurrent slow increase of the solar wind speed, density and the interplanetary magnetic field which started early on December 6, indicate strong compression region in front of the fast flow. Decrease of density and strong increase of the solar wind speed and temperature (observed at about 16:00 UT on December 6), indicate arrival of the fast flow itself. The maximum solar wind speed of about 800 km/s was observed this morning. The highest value of the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude of about 25nT, was recorded at about 15:00 UT on December 6. Due to arrival of the fast flow we observed few intervals of negative value of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (down to -14 nT at about 18:30 UT on December 6), which induced active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions from about 18:00 UT on December 6 until early this morning (the local station at Dourbes and Izmiran reported values of K=4, and NOAA reported one interval of Kp=5). We expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 043, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	044 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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