Просмотр архива за четверг, 18 декабря 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Dec 18 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Dec 2014	192	005
19 Dec 2014	192	007
20 Dec 2014	192	023

Bulletin

The Sun released one M flare and seven high C flares during the past 24 hours, produced by NOAA AR 2242 and 2241. The M1.4 flare was released by NOAA AR 2241 on December 17 with peak time 19:01 UT. Measured on new LASCO C3 imagery, the halo CME associated to the M8.7 flare of December 17 has an estimated velocity of 538 km/s, which yields an estimated arrival time at Earth around 15h UT on December 20. M and even X flaring from AR 2242 and AR 2241 are possible in the next 24 hours. There is a chance for proton storms in the days ahead. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speeds observed by ACE were nominal between about 340 and 440 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) rose from about 5 to 7.5 nT. In the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 18, 19 and the first half of December 20. Active (K Dourbes = 4) to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5) are possible in the second half of December 20 in view of the expected CME arrival.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 122, based on 03 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	192
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	128 - Based on 09 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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