Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 21 декабря 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Dec 21 1224 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Dec 2014	203	023
22 Dec 2014	203	029
23 Dec 2014	203	015

Bulletin

The Sun released two M flares and eight C flares during the past 24 hours, all but one of them produced by beta-gamma-delta region NOAA AR 2242. An M1.2 flare was released by AR 2242 and peaked at 07:32 UT on December 21. An M1.1 flare was released by AR 2241 and peaked around 12:13 UT on December 21. After new coronagraph data came in, the CME associated to the X1.8 flare of December 20 was first observed by LASCO C2 at 1:25 UT on December 20. It is a partial halo CME with an angular extent of about 180 degrees, and the main bulk directed towards the southwest. Based on LASCO C3 images, an Earth directed speed of 1180 km/s was derived. The CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth with estimated arrival time 10h UT on December 22. Slightly enhanced > 10 MeV proton levels were observed by GOES 13. However, the levels are decreasing again, and stayed below 1 pfu. M and even X flaring is possible in the next 24 hours, especially from AR 2242 and 2241. There is a chance for proton storms in the days ahead. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) as measured by ACE was stable around 6.5 nT until it jumped to a new stable regime of about 8.5 nT around 2:30 UT on December 21. Meanwhile, solar wind velocity fluctuated between about 330 and 380 km/s throughout the past 24 hours. Though the solar wind did not jump around 2:30 UT, it displayed a larger variability since. These are probably the signatures of the arrival of the CME from December 17. During the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). Active to minor storm geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 6) are likely on December 21 and 22, with a chance for major storm periods (K Dourbes = 6) in view of the expected arrival of the CMEs from December 19 (on December 21), and 20 (on December 22). Quiet to active levels (K Dourbes < 5) are expected on December 23.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 097, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	203
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	093 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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