Просмотр архива за вторник, 23 декабря 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Dec 23 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Dec 2014	175	020
24 Dec 2014	170	009
25 Dec 2014	160	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was restricted to four C-class flares, with contributions from Catania sunspot regions 39, 38 and 42 (NOAA regions 2241, 2242 and 2244 respectively). Catania 39 and 38 are slightly loosing part of their complexity and size. Catania region 42 is developping to a beta-gamma region. No additional Earth-bound CMEs are observed. The > 10 MeV proton flux has risen on December 22 at 21 UT due to the shock-like arrival assumed to be related to the December 20 CME and is showing a new steep increase near 10 UT. The proton event threshold was passed at 11:15 UT to a value of 14 pfu, but the proton flux is decreasing again. Flaring activity at the C- and M-level is expected, especially from Catania regions 38, 39 and 42. A further increase of the > 10 MeV proton flux is possible in case of strong flaring. ACE observed the arrival of a transient at 14:25 UT on December 22. This is possibly related to the December 20 CME. A gradual increase of the solar wind speed started, going from 380 to about 460 km/s. Simultaneously, the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field went from 18 to 26 nT and decreased then later on. At 10:30 UT on December 23, a shock was observed in solar wind data from ACE and SOHO/Celias. A sudden increase in solar wind speed occurred, going from 350 to 550 km/s, accompanied by a jump in density and temperature. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) jumped from 10 to 33 nT and Bz is now positive at 27 nT. Currently it is unclear what the corresponding CME is. Around 17:00 UT on December 22, a solar sector boundary crossing occurred, going from a positive to a negative sector. Local geomagnetic activity is moderate at Dourbes (K=3). Unsettled to minor geomagnetic conditions are possible due to CME effects.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 086, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	179
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	019
Estimated Ap	019
Estimated international sunspot number	084 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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