Просмотр архива за четверг, 25 декабря 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2014 Dec 25 1214 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Dec 2014	150	008
26 Dec 2014	140	019
27 Dec 2014	140	016

Bulletin

Solar activity once more was dominated by Catania sunspot region 38 (NOAA active region 2242), which currently has rounded the west limb. The main event was a long duration C4.0 flare, peaking at 5:23 UT on December 25. Coronagraphic imagery are not completely available yet to determine the characteristics of an accompanying CME, but from the first data it seems to be a weak westward CME. Additionally, C2.0 and C1.8 flares erupted from Catania 43 (NOAA 2245), positioned at N10E23. The C3.7 event from Catania 39 on December 24 was indeed associated with a CME, but the CME was too narrow, directed to the west and hence not geo-effective. A new unlabeled region has grown southeast of Catania 42 (near S12W25) and developed to a beta region. The > 10 MeV proton flux is still enhanced, but slowly returning back to the quiet situation. Flaring activity at the C-level is expected, with a minor chance for an isolated M-flare. The solar wind speed was relatively stable with values between 450 and 550 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached values between 5 and 7 nT, with a fluctuating Bz component from -6 to +6 nT. Geomagnetic activity reached active levels at Dourbes (K=4). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. The arrival of a high speed stream from an elongated coronal hole (N15W25 to N55E05) that passed the central meridian, expected in the course of December 26 might trigger geomagnetic conditions to active levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 068, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	022
Estimated Ap	022
Estimated international sunspot number	068 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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