Просмотр архива за среда, 7 января 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Jan 07 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Jan 2015	147	017
08 Jan 2015	151	007
09 Jan 2015	155	017

Bulletin

Solar activity was low. Just before the end of the period a C4.3 flare was recorded peaking at 11:51UT originating from AR 2253. Two further C1.9 flares (peaking at 6:06UT and 22:03UT), must be attributed to the (yet unnumbered) region rotating onto the visible disc in the southern hemisphere. AR 2253 had initially simplified but some opposite flux emergence in the leading part was recorded after midnight. A new region numbered NOAA AR 2257 emerged in the northern hemisphere (N05E12). And two regions rotated onto the visible disc. One in the northern hemisphere (numbered NOAA AR 2258) and one in the southern hemisphere (yet unnumbered). Flaring at C level is still probable with a chance for an M flare. Likely sources are still AR 2253 as well as the new unnumbered region in the southern hemisphere. No significant CME's were recorded. Solar wind conditions first reflected the diminishing influence of the southern coronal hole high speed stream that was influencing the solar wind the past days. Solar wind speed decreased to values around 420 km/s and total magnetic field decreased to values around 6nT. However, this evolution was followed around 5:30 UT by an episode of first sudden and later further continuous increase of the magnetic field to values of 23nT. This was also accompanied by a pronounced and consistently negative Bz- component of down to -21nT. Some rotation of the magnetic fields was also observed during the event. The episode is indicative of an ICME although no source could be identified. Conditions are currently stabilizing (Bz nearly neutral) but the total magnetic field remains elevated at 20 nT. Geomagnetic conditions saw moderate storm levels both globally and locally as a result of the event (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 6). Some active conditions or even storm conditions are possible in the wake of the event. Later, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with afterwards quiet to active conditions due to the influence of a returning positive coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 077, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	068 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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