Просмотр архива за пятница, 30 января 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Jan 30 1228 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Jan 2015	170	014
31 Jan 2015	174	016
01 Feb 2015	177	023

Bulletin

NOAA 2268 and NOAA 2277 dominated the flaring activity, with a total of 10 C- and 2 M-class flares recorded over the period. NOAA 2268 was the source of the 2 M-class flares: an M2.0 flare peaking at 00:44UT and a long-duration M1.7 peaking at 05:36UT. NOAA 2277 produced a C8.4 flare peaking at 23:47UT. No CMEs seem to have been associated to these flares, and no earth-directed CMEs have been observed. Both NOAA 2268 and NOAA 2277 show mixed magnetic polarities. The x-ray background flux was mostly above the C1-level. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains enhanced, probably in response to the continued M-class flaring activity. With a maximum of 1.4 pfu (07:40UT), it stayed well below the proton event threshold (10 pfu). Further M-class flaring is expected. The proton event warning remains in effect. Solar wind remained disturbed throughout the period. Solar wind speed slowly undulated between 350 and 430 km/s, the latter value prevailing for several hours around 18:00UT and again around 09:00UT. Bz was more variable between +9 and -9 nT, with a period of sustained negative values between 16:00 and 19:00UT. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled, with an episode of active and locally even minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5) between 19:00UT and 23:00UT. Further disturbances in the the solar wind are possible from other CH HSS, in particular from the extension of a southern polar CH which is currently passing the CM and expected to influence the geomagnetic field possibly as soon as 31 January. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions, with a possibility of a minor geomagnetic storm on 31 January and/or 01 February.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 114, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	200
10cm solar flux	165
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	111 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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