Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 22 марта 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Mar 22 1252 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Mar 2015	117	043
23 Mar 2015	120	043
24 Mar 2015	123	015

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity has been very low with the X-ray flux remaining below C level throughout the period. However, several new regions developed on disc. The regions near S17W52, and S19E38 were numbered NOAA 2306 and 2307 and both seem to be rather simple in magnetic configuration. Additional regions (yet unnumbered) were seen to emerge near N17W31 and N10E02. Some opposite flux emergence was observed in the leading part of region 2303. And yet another region is rotating into view on the northern hemisphere. With the emergence of several new regions on disc the probability for C flares is increasing again. We thus anticipate that C flaring is likely to occur. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. Solar wind conditions showed the anticipated sector boundary crossing and corotating interaction region followed by the onset of the high speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole. A small shock was observed in the solar wind around 20:25 UT. Solar wind speed saw a sudden increase from around 580 km/s to around 650 km/s while the total magnetic field jumped from around 6-7 nT to 10 nT. The magnetic field phi angle remained initially stable in the negative sector and Bz also remained initially positive. Temperature increased with the shock while density rather seemed to decrease. Between 1:00 and 2:00 UT the magnetic field phi angle then rotated into a positive sector. Afterwards the total magnetic field fluctuated, first dipping down and afterwards reaching a maximum of 13-14 nT after 7:00UT. The total magnetic field is currently again at levels of around 9nT. Bz saw excursions down to -9nT. The solar wind speed also further increased reaching peaks of over 750 km/s. It is currently at levels around 670 km/s. Associated geomagnetic conditions were quiet to moderate storm levels (NOAA Kp 2-6, local K Dourbes 1-5). Over the next days Earth is expected to remain under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, with associated active and minor storm geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 060, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Mar 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	019 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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