Просмотр архива за вторник, 31 марта 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Mar 31 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Mar 2015	132	017
01 Apr 2015	128	020
02 Apr 2015	125	008

Bulletin

Flaring activity during the last 24 hours was limited to four C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C4.1 flare peaking at 22:05 UT on March 30 originating from the NOAA active region (AR) 2303, located right behind the west limb. We expect flaring activity at the low C-level in the next 48 hours, potentially from NOAA ARs 2315 and 2316. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. The Earth is still inside a slow solar wind flow. A shock-like signature was observed in the solar wind data observed by ACE and SOHO/CELIAS. Solar wind speed (to about 400 km/s), density and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) jumped at around 7:40 UT on March 31. The z-component of the IMF is varying between -13 and +11 nT. The solar source of this disturbance in the solar wind is unclear at this moment. A CME from March 27 (first measurement in LASCO-C2 at 13:36 UT) and a CME of March 28 (fist detected in LASCO-C2 around 10:37 UT) are two potentially associated events. No geomagnetic disturbances are noted yet. Geomagnetic activity up to the minor storm level is expected, due to the combined influence of the arrived shock-like structure and the fast flow from a low-latitude extension of the southern polar coronal hole, which is expected to arrive in the course of today.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 031, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Mar 2015

Wolf number Catania	060
10cm solar flux	134
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	042 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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