Просмотр архива за пятница, 3 июля 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Jul 03 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Jul 2015	114	004
04 Jul 2015	110	005
05 Jul 2015	108	006

Bulletin

Solar activity has been increasing over the past 24 hours. With 6 C-class flares produced from Active Regions (AR) 2373, 2376 and 2378. AR 2378 has rotated into view on the east limb and produced the largest flare, a C5.6 class flare, peaking at 03:05 UT on 2015-Jul-03. A CME can be seen emerging from beyond the north-east solar limb at 18:00 UT on 2015-Jul-02 with a velocity of 440 km / s. The CME is not expected to be geo-effective. The proton numbers have continued to be low and have not exceeded ~1 pfu at the Earth in the past 24 hours. Solar activity may increase in the coming days with the arrival of AR 2378, which appears quite active.

The solar wind speed has been steadily decreasing over the past 24 hours, from 360 to 320 km / s. The total magnetic field has been relatively stable around 3 - 4 nT, and the Bz component has been around 0 nT with some small fluctuations in the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-1 (NOAA) and local K index (Dourbes) 0-2 over the past 24 hours, similar conditions are expected to persist. There was one CME in the past 24 hours (see details above), which emerged from beyond the north-east solar limb, it is not expected to produce any significant activity at the Earth. There is one transient coronal hole currently located in the South, which may enhance solar wind speeds at the Earth in a couple of days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 090, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Jul 2015

Wolf number Catania	094
10cm solar flux	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	084 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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