Просмотр архива за понедельник, 24 августа 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Aug 24 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Aug 2015	133	017
25 Aug 2015	133	040
26 Aug 2015	139	013

Bulletin

Solar activity remains dominated by NOAA AR 2403 which produced an M5.6 flare this morning peaking at 7:33UT. The flare was associated with radio bursts detected at the Humain station. The region maintains its complex beta-gamma-delta configuration and continues to grow. Further, large flaring at M level can be expected from this region with also a chance for X flaring. As the region is now transitting the Western hemisphere large flaring from this region could possibly also cause a proton event. In SDO imagery there is evidence of material movement associated to the M5.6 flare but no significant dimming is seen. The only coronagraph data available at the time of writing is a STEREO A/COR2 movie lasting from 8:41UT to 11:11UT in which there is no obvious sign of a halo CME. We are awaiting the arrival of SoHO/C2 coronagraph data to properly exclude any possible related Earth-directed CME.

Solar wind conditions saw the decline of the high speed stream from the positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. Speeds decreased from a peak of 600 km/s to around 480 km/s currently. Total magnetic field declined to a nominal value around 4 nT with Bz variable. Some periods of active geomagnetic conditions were recorded in the UT afternoon of August 24 (local K Dourbes 2-4, NOAA Kp 2-3). Solar wind speeds are expected to decline further but may increase again by the arrival of the August 21/22 CME's, possibly later today or early tomorrow. Active geomagnetic conditions to possibly minor storm conditions may be associated.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 078, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Aug 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	133
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	025
Estimated Ap	028
Estimated international sunspot number	075 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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