Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 30 августа 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Aug 30 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Aug 2015	100	010
31 Aug 2015	098	007
01 Sep 2015	096	011

Bulletin

Solar activity remained dominated by active region 2403 which produced an M1.4 flare peaking at 3:30UT. Flaring at M level remains possible from region 2403 as it is rounding the West limb with also a slight chance for an X flare. Afterwards flaring is expected to be atmost at C level. The warning condition for proton events is maintained for another day. SDO/AIA 304 images show a filament eruption near N20E15 after 5:00UT. We await coronagraph data to assess a possible related CME. No Earth directed CME's were recorded so far. Solar wind speed was stable in the 430-470km/s range under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Total magnetic field was in the 5-8nT range with a general downward trend while Bz was variable. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3) with a short episode of active conditions locally at the start of the period (K Dourbes 1-4). Solar wind speeds will show a general decline as the high speed stream influence passes, with associated quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions. From late September 1 onwards the equatorial coronal hole that crossed the central meridian late yesterday may become geoeffective.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 053, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Aug 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	100
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	055 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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