Просмотр архива за четверг, 17 сентября 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Sep 17 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Sep 2015	114	018
18 Sep 2015	116	029
19 Sep 2015	118	018

Bulletin

NOAA 2415 developed a small delta structure just south of its middle main spot. This resulted in 12 C-class flares and 1 M-class flare. Notable events were a C9.5 flare peaking at 03:03UT, and the M1.1 flare peaking at 09:40UT. The other 3 regions were quiet. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections have been observed.

More C-class flares are expected, with a reasonable chance on another M-class flare from NOAA 2415.

Solar wind speed fluctuated mostly between 440 and 490 km/s, and is currently near 460 km/s. Bz oscillated between -6 and +5 nT, with the interplanetary magnetic field pointing away from the Sun. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed, with active episodes around midnight.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected. Minor geomagnetic storming is possible on 18 and/or 19 September in response to the arrival of the high speed stream of a transequatorial coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Sep 2015

Wolf number Catania	093
10cm solar flux	109
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	078 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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