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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Oct 03 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Oct 2015	101	017
04 Oct 2015	095	043
05 Oct 2015	092	026

Bulletin

Solar activity was moderate and remained dominated by NOAA AR 2422 which produced 2 M1 flares (peaking at 12:26UT and 17:18UT respectively) as well as several C flares. In the second half of the reporting period flaring remained at C level with also AR 2427 contributing this morning. Although M-flaring from region 2422 remains quite possible, the region seemed to be in decay, and as it is departing the West limb, we expect flaring to remain at C level. A rather long filament stretching across the NorthEastern quadrant lifted off from 16:00 UT onwards (as clearly observed in SDO/AIA 304). Currently available coronagraph images only show an associated weak and narrow ejection directed in North-Eastern direction. No other significant CME's were recorded. Solar wind speed became slightly elevated reaching a peak of 450 km/s and is now around 390 km/s. Total magnetic field also remained enhanced and is currently at around 11 nT, with Bz reaching a negative peak of -6.7nT around 5:30UT and afterwards gently decaying and turning northward. The phi angle was stable in the positive sector. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 2-3) with an isolated active period at planetary level (NOAA Kp 2-4). Solar wind is expected to remain slightly enhanced and expected to see further enhancement by a glancing CME arrival of the September 30 events later tomorrow. Geomagnetic conditions could thus rise to active or minor storm conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 047, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Oct 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	057 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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