Просмотр архива за суббота, 31 октября 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2015 Oct 31 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Oct 2015	114	006
01 Nov 2015	113	011
02 Nov 2015	112	017

Bulletin

Solar activity was low. Catania group 62 (NOAA region 2443) has a complex gamma-beta-delta configuration of its magnetic field and produced a number of higher C level flares. The strongest was a C7.8 flare peaking at 20:16UT. Catania group 62 remains complex and is expected to produce C flaring with also a reasonable chance for an M flare. A small filament eruption occurred in the southeastern quadrant around 13:58UT as wel as a larger one at the southeast limb around 8:00 UT. No Earth directed CME's have been recorded. Proton levels are further recovering from the October 29 event. A positive polarity equatorial coronal started crossing the central meridian around midnight. It may become geoeffective from November 3 onwards. Solar wind speed was mainly in the 340-260 km/s but saw some peaks near 400 km/s. Total magnetic field saw a short dip to around 5 nT but was mostly in the 7-10 nT range. Bz was variable and later mostly positive and remained above -5nT. Magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the negative sector, except for two temporary excursions. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 0-3). Mostly nominal solar wind conditions and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue, with some possible slight enhancements and possible isolated active geomagnetic conditions due to an expected sector boundary crossing. After November 2 the positive polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to increase solar wind and geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 078, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Oct 2015

Wolf number Catania	110
10cm solar flux	121
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	085 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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