Просмотр архива за среда, 3 февраля 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2016 Feb 03 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Feb 2016	105	014
04 Feb 2016	110	011
05 Feb 2016	115	008

Bulletin

There are currently five active regions visible on the solar disk. NOAA active region 2490 (Catania 16) has grown in size and number of sunspots, while NOAA 2489 has shrunk. NOAA 2492 turned into view, while another new (yet unnumbered) region has developed near S05W20 over the past period. All regions have a fairly simple configuration. The strongest flare was a C1.2 flare, originating from a region that is currently rounding the East limb. More flaring activity at the C-level is expected. No Earth directed CMEs were observed.

The solar wind was slightly disturbed from 14h UT on, when the solar wind speed started to rise from 280 km/s to maximum values near 400 km/s. This rise is believed to be associated to a stream emanating from the equatorial extension of the northern coronal hole. The magnitude of the magnetic field reach a maximum of 11 nT, with a fluctuating north-south Bz component between -8 and +8 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were disturbed during a few time slots, with local K (Dourbes) reaching K=2-3 and global estimated Kp (NOAA) reaching values up to K=4 and 5 early this UT morning due a period of negative Bz. Mainly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance for a few slots of active conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 088, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Feb 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	054 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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