Просмотр архива за пятница, 25 марта 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2016 Mar 25 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Mar 2016	088	009
26 Mar 2016	089	019
27 Mar 2016	090	017

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been very low. No significant flares have been recorded. All Active Regions (AR) have shown low levels of activity. AR 2524 (Macintosh class:Eso; Mag. type:Beta) produced the largest flare, a B3.3 class flare peaking at 17:02 UT on 24-Mar-2016, which had a very small eruption associated with it. AR 2526 recently rotated over the East limb, but due to its proximity to the limb it is still difficult to ascertain the magnetic complexity of the region, however it produced a couple of B-class flares yesterday and may have the potential for further activity. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a reasonable probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares.

The solar wind speed has been slowly increasing from around 450 to 550 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated between around 5 and 10 nT, peaking at 14:00 UT yesterday. The Bz component was largely positive, fluctuating between -4 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. There is currently a positive polarity Northern polar coronal hole with a large extension to lower latitudes near disk center, as this region rotates further into the Western hemisphere the resulting high-speed stream (HSS) should enhance solar wind speeds at the Earth and as a consequence may increase geo-activity levels in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 030, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Mar 2016

Wolf number Catania	036
10cm solar flux	087
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	029 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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