Просмотр архива за понедельник, 10 октября 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2016 Oct 10 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Oct 2016	106	011
11 Oct 2016	107	007
12 Oct 2016	108	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was very low with X-ray flux remaining below C level and only some minor B-level flaring recorded in Catania group 40 (NOAA region 2598). The three regions on disk appear fairly stable although a new sunspot (Catania group 45) has appeared just South West of Catania group 40. Solar flaring conditions are likely to remain quiet while the occurrence of a C-class flare remains possible, especially from Catania group 40 (NOAA 2598). Proton flux levels were at background levels and expected to remain so. A full halo CME is visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from 2:00 UT onwards on October 9. The ejection is mostly directed towards the North-East and has an angular extent of 360 degrees (although the South-West component is only very faint, causing Cactus to underestimate the angular extent). The event is also seen in STEREO A / COR2 data where it is directed to the North-West (as seen from STEREO A) with a rather restricted angular extent of around 110 degrees. The speed is measured to be at most 300 km/s. The origin of the event is not entirely clear but must likely be related to the filament eruption around 16:00 UT October 8, in the North-Eastern quadrant. The restricted angular extent in STEREO A data indicates that the Earth is likely to be located only at the edge of the CME passage, which is not likely to arrive before October 13. Solar wind conditions were nominal with solar wind speed in the 350-400km/s range and total magnetic field in the 5-7nT range. The North-South orientation of the magnetic field was variable with Southward deflections of over -6nT, while the magnetic field phi angle was in the positive sector. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain nominal over the next 48 hours. Only late October 13 we may experience the passage of the October 9 CME. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 1-3) and expected to remain so during the next 48 hours. Only starting late October 13, minor to moderate geomagnetic storming should be anticipated in association to the possible passage of the October 9 CME.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 073, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Oct 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	105
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	070 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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