Просмотр архива за понедельник, 2 января 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2017 Jan 02 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Jan 2017	074	007
03 Jan 2017	074	038
04 Jan 2017	074	037

Bulletin

Solar X-ray flux remained at background levels throughout the period with no flaring observed. A short lived region got numbered NOAA 2623 but immediately decayed into plage. Some minor spot formation was seen this morning near magnetic flux concentrations around S08W33 (numbered Catania 74) and around N15E42 (numbered Catania 75). X-ray flux is expected to remain at background levels. No Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data. Solar proton flux values are at background levels and expected to remain so. A large transequatorial extension of the negative polarity Southern polar coronal hole is crossing the central meridian today. Its associated high speed stream is expected to influence geospace conditions from 2017-01-03 onwards.

Solar wind conditions showed a further decline of the positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed declined from around 500 km/s to around 400 km/s and magnetic field was in the 2 to 6nT range with Bz initially variable but turning consistently Southward down to -5nT at the end of the period. The phi angle indicated a positive polarity sector until around 6:00UT this morning. A further stabilisation at nominal solar wind values is expected over the next 24 hours with tomorrow on 2017-01-03 an expected corotating interaction region marking the arrival of the high speed stream from the large transequatorial extension of the Southern polar coronal hole. Its main part is expected to dominate the solar wind over the next days reaching speeds over 700 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled and will initially remain so until tomorrow when an extended period of active to minor or moderate geomagnetic storming is expected under the influence of the expected high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Jan 2017

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	073
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	012 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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