Просмотр архива за понедельник, 27 марта 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2017 Mar 27 1318 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Mar 2017	079	046
28 Mar 2017	081	014
29 Mar 2017	080	006

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has increased. There have been two C-class flares. The first flare C1.4 peaked around 00.30 UT on 27-Mar-2017 (originated by NOAA AR 2644). The second flare C3.2 peaked at 11:18 UT on 27-Mar-2017 (originated by the returned active region at the eastern solar limb, numbered by Catania as the sunspot group 9). Solar Demon detected an EUV wave associated to the last C3.2 flare, which most probably initiated a narrow CME which will not affect the Earth environment. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain at the slightly elevated levels over the next 24 hours with a significant probability of C-class flares. As expected, the arrival of the high speed stream (HSS) from the huge recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (CH) lead to the episode of a geomagnetic disturbance. Over the past 24 hours, solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR increased from about 355 km/s to 560 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) ranged between about 14.5 and 12.5 nT. Bz variations also increased (varying mostly between -12 nT and +13 nT). Kp index reached minor storm levels (Kp=5) during 03-09 UT time interval today (27-Mar-2017) , then Kp reached major storm level (Kp=6, ongoing), while values of local K Dourbes index are ranged to (2- 5). Solar wind parameters are expected to grow slightly further. Consequently, active to major storm geomagnetic conditions are possible today and tomorrow. On the day three solar wind parameters are expected to return to the nominal values.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 047, based on 24 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Mar 2017

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	077
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	027 - Based on 33 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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