Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 2 апреля 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2017 Apr 02 1305 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Apr 2017	101	010
03 Apr 2017	107	010
04 Apr 2017	105	011

Bulletin

Solar activity has been enhanced over the past 24 hours, with Active Region (AR) 2644 (McIntosh:Eao/Type:Beta) showing continued flux emergence, and producing several C-class flares and three M-class flares; an M4.4 class flare on 01-Apr-2017 peaking at 21:48 UT, an M5.3 flare on 02-Apr-2017 peaking at 08:04 UT and an M1.4 class flare peaking at 08:35 UT. The first M4.4 class flare had an associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Although there was evidence of a coronal wave on the Sun and the extent of the CME became apparent as LASCO observations became available. The AR 2644 was located at N16W53, and the CME was largely directed to the north west, the CME had a speed of 495 km/s, the solar wind had a speed 550 km/s, and if a small component was to reach the Earth it would be expected to arrive on 05-Apr-2017 early morning. The second flare M5.3 had an associated dimming and coronal wave, LASCO chronograph observations are not available yet. AR 2648 (McIntosh:Cro/Type:Beta) emerged yesterday and has shown some evidence of growth, but still remains small. Solar activity is expected to remain active over the next 24 hours, with AR 2645 producing C-class and AR 2644 producing C-flares flares with the possibility of M, X-class flares. There exists a small probability for the occurrence of a week solar proton event due to the M class flares that took place at the west side of the solar disk. The solar wind speed, as recorded by the DSCOVR satellite, has been slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours, from roughly 620 km/s to 490 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, as recorded by the DSCOVR satellite, has been around 5 nT, and the Bz component was largely fluctuating between -3 nT and +3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions varied between active and quiet over the past 24 hours, with the local (Dourbes) K-index 4-1 and the NOAA K-index 4-2. There is currently a small positive coronal hole located at S15W30 which may increase solar wind speeds. The low solar wind speed, combined with the low magnitude southward Bz indicates that geomagnetic activity should be small with possible low level enhancements over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 084, based on 28 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Apr 2017

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	101
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	069 - Based on 33 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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