Просмотр архива за пятница, 4 августа 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2017 Aug 04 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Aug 2017	076	029
05 Aug 2017	076	021
06 Aug 2017	076	007

Bulletin

Beta region NOAA 2670 produced a few low B flares within the past 24 hours. The probability for a C flare within the next 24 hours is estimated at 45%, with a slight chance for an M flare (10%). No earth- directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels. DSCOVR registered a jump in both solar wind density and magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) at 9:38 UT on August 3, followed by a gradual rise of both solar wind density (maximum: about 59 particles per cc at 4:15 UT on August 4) and magnitude of the IMF (maximum: about 21 nT at 6:20 UT on August 4), announcing the anticipated arrival of a high speed solar wind stream of a large positive coronal hole extending from the north pole to the equatorial region. Around 1h UT on August 4, the IMF changed direction and started pointing away from the Sun. Near the same time, solar wind speed started rising gradually to a maximum of about 715 km/s at 11:20 UT. Current solar wind values are about 650 km/s and the current magnitude of the IMF is about 14 nT. Bt was very variable, in the range from about -17 to 20 nT. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Under the influence of the aforementioned high speed stream, active to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 4 to 5) are possible on August 4 and 5, with a slight chance for moderate geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels are expected on August 6.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 012, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Aug 2017

Wolf number Catania	013
10cm solar flux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	013 - Based on 39 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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