Просмотр архива за среда, 6 сентября 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2017 Sep 06 1254 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Солнечные протоны

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Sep 2017	150	073
07 Sep 2017	150	093
08 Sep 2017	150	017

Bulletin

After yesterdays multiple M flares from Catania group 46 (NOAA active region 2673) this region first seemed to become less activite but this was just the prelude to the X2.2 flare that it generated this morning peaking at 9:10UT. While writing this report another X9.3 flare from this region appeared to be ongoing (peak time 12:02UT) with associated radio bursts of large magnitude recorded in multiple wavelengths. Given the persistent complexity of the region and the magnitude of the ongoing flaring observed, we expect further flaring at M level from this region with a very significant chance for further X flares. Several radio bursts were observed in relation to the X2.2 flare. Currently available coronagraph data show some ejecta towards the South West following the X2.2 flare, but the angular extent appears to be limited. No other Earth directed CMEs are visible in coronagraph data. The >10 MeV proton flux values reached a peak of near 200pfu around 19:30UT before declining again to currently around 25pfu. No increase was recorded following the X2.2 flare. But renewed increases should be anticipated in relation with the ongoing activity.

Solar wind was recovering over the past 24 hours towards nominal conditions with no sign yet of the arrival of the September 4 CME. Solar wind speed decreased to under 475 km/s and total magnetic field was nominally below 5nT. This afternoon we should see increased solar wind conditions with the arrival of the September 4 CME which may increase solar wind speed to over 800 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 1-3, NOAA Kp 2-3). Associated with the arrival of the September 4 CME, geomagnetic storms are expected to set in over the next 24 hours and persist into the next 48 hours. Storm levels may reach major or possibly severe levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 113, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Sep 2017

Wolf number Catania	148
10cm solar flux	121
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	133 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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